Wednesday, January 23, 2013

Irvine Housing Blog

Irvine Housing Blog

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Irvine House vs Condo Numbers: January 2013

Posted: 23 Jan 2013 04:00 AM PST

According to Altos Research, Irvine’s single-family housing market is continuing to improve (note the sharp upturn in the graph below). Altos gives Irvine’s single-family homes a Market Action Index of 25.63, which Altos defines as a buyer’s market. (Above 30 is defined as a seller’s market; below is defined as a buyer’s market.)  Altos also states that the average single-family home in Irvine has been on the market for about 127 days as of January 11, 2013.

Altos Market Action Index for Single-family Homes in Irvine
Altos Research

Following is Irvine’s housing market data provided by Redfin on January 14, 2013. To view numbers for Irvine by neighborhood, see my previous post: Irvine Housing Numbers by the Numbers: January 2013.

Type # Homes Listed # Homes Sold List Per SF Sold Per SF
Houses 113 274 $409 $357
Condos 106 324 $377 $327
All 219 598 $389 $338

Probably Bubble?

Posted: 22 Jan 2013 09:35 AM PST

Inventory: 227 Homes for sale on January 21, 2013.

But, there are only 23 homes in the popular $500,000-$600,000 range, and only 66 in $500,000-$750,000 range. This inventory includes attached condominiums, detached condominiums and may be some single family residences. It’s not easy as before to find an identical home to compare and contrast as it was before.  Like I said in my previous blogs, Irvine is turning into a seller’s market again, and we are in a mini-bubble right now. Whether this bubble will just grow bigger will be for time and economic conditions to tell, but right now Irvine homeowners are listing their homes for a premium price, and getting it, almost.

36 San Clemente, Irvine CA 92602

Listing Price above $500,000 for an attached condominium? Check.
Price/ SF way above recent comparable sales in the area? Check.
At least two HOA dues and an additional Mello Roos payment? Check.
Itty-bitty backyard with enough space to fit two chairs in it? Check.
Perigraniteel and upgrades that you might want to.. umm.. term eclectic? Check.
There is something magical about the first sip of Kool Aid.. those who drank it warned you not to drink it, but such is life, everyone wants to know the taste first hand!

Listing Price: $539,000
Monthly Mortgage: $1893
Monthly HOA: $362
Monthly Mello Roos: $100
Monthly Property Taxes: $475
Fixed Monthly Expenses: $2830

36 San Clemente is a Brisbane Plan B home. It has two bedrooms, two and half bathrooms. There are two patios, one at the entrance, and one off the kitchen. The entry is nice, feels grand for a 1500 SF condominium. The staircase inside adds to the grandeur. For someone looking to rent it out, it might be a good opportunity, but one of the Brisbane properties in the North Park area was leased at $1.62/SF. That would bring in $2430/Month. Not much profitable as an investment property unless you have eyes on the probable bubble and boom value down the lane.

Here is a brief sales history of the Brisbane homes (2012):

01/13 37 Spring Valley  $304/SF
05/08 34 Spring Valley  $248/SF
05/09 40 Spring Valley  $258/SF
05/16 41 Burlingame   $281/SF
09/11 58 Burlingame   $308/SF
09/14 73 Burlingame   $276/SF

Do you think this property makes a good “investment opportunity” as stated in the MLS listing?

What does investment opportunity mean when the property is listed way above the comparable sales, and the trending lease Price/SF won’t cover the fixed monthly expenses, diving into negative cash flow?

Would you buy a property in anticipation of the “probably bubble”

Comment below, or share your thoughts at Talk Irvine.


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