Wednesday, April 18, 2012

Irvine Housing Blog

Irvine Housing Blog

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Is Irvine Housing a Buyers’ or Sellers’ Market?

Posted: 18 Apr 2012 05:00 AM PDT

The following post gives more information to help answer the question that Cubiz Zirconia asked in Monday's post: Is it time for Irvine home prices to rebound?

Trulia came out with a report recently that said buying a home was a better deal than renting in many U.S. locations, including the OC.

Trulia Rent vs Buy Chart

Does this mean that Irvine has transitioned from a buyers’ to a sellers’ market?

When I was writing about the Irvine real estate market for Redfin, I would periodically check Altos Research statistics for single-family homes in Irvine. One of these stats was the Altos Market Action Index. Altos defines the Market Action Index as the balance between potential buyers and sellers; in other words, the balance between supply and demand. Above 30 is defined as a sellers’ market, and below 30 is defined as a buyers’ market.

Following is a random sample of past Irvine Market Action Indexes for single-family homes:

  • December 13, 2009: 19.98
  • July 12, 2009: 18.31
  • September 16, 2008: 16.68
  • June 15, 2008: 16.54
  • January 13, 2008: 16.11

According to these numbers, the Irvine single-family market was definitely a buyers’ market. So what about today? Has the single-family market in Irvine transitioned from a buyers’ to sellers’ market?

Irvine’s current Altos Market Index is 20.54. According to this number, Irvine’s single-family housing is still a buyers’ market. (Of course, this could be true or untrue for different neighborhoods in Irvine.) How long will this last? Any opinions?

To see more statistics from Altos on Irvine’s single-family housing market, to go the Altos Research page for Irvine.  I found it interesting that the 90-day trend shows that the number of homes on the market in Irvine has declined quite a bit.

Note: I’ll write about Irvine’s condo market at another time.

Discuss below or at Talk Irvine.


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