Posted: 31 Oct 2011 03:30 AM PDT
Sales rates are 25% below normal, and with low household formation and a lack of equity in potential move-up households, transaction volumes will remain low for the foreseeable future.
Irvine Home Address ... 65 SAPPHIRE Irvine, CA 92602
Everyone want to move up to better housing accommodations. Years ago I toured the Tijuana subdivisions of URBI. One of the homes was a 288 SF single family detached home. When I asked one of our guides who bought such a place, he beamed with pride and said they were generally people moving out of shanties. They were thankful to have working plumbing, solid walls, and climate control. That tiny home was a huge improvement over what they moved out of.
My wife recently had a conversation with a woman who was lamenting her plight. Her family was outgrowing their Shady Canyon home. With three children, their 4.000 SF 5 bedroom house no longer met their needs. She wasn't bragging or being pretentious, she was relaying the truth of her situation as she saw it.
No matter your station in life, it's human nature to want more. Thus, a move-up buyer is a large component of any healthy real estate market.
Move-up markets need equity and wage growth
A move-up market requires two things in order to function: equity and increasing incomes. Neither is present in today's housing market, and there are few glimmers of hope on the horizon.
In the real world, most first-time homebuyers use an FHA loan and buy a low-cost property. The reason for this is simple: it takes too long to save 20% for a down payment on a conventional loan. First-time homebuyers use FHA loans because the 3.5% down payment is within reach. Further, once these buyers are in a property, they simple wait five or ten years for the wage-based appreciation to magically give them 20% to 30% equity in a property to use on their move-up purchase.
Once the owner has enough equity to get a closing check large enough to fund a 20% down payment on a move-up property, they go shopping. Since this is usually quite some time after buying their FHA financed property, it's likely the household wage earners are making more money. They take their larger family income and their 20% down payment and buy a move up property. At least that's how it used to work.
Notice the scenario above requires both appreciation to create equity and increasing income to finance a larger loan balance. If either of those conditions is missing, the move-up market suffers because fewer buyers are active.
So think about today's market. We are creeping out of a deep and prolonged recession characterized by persistently high unemployment. Incomes are down, not up. Even if buyers had the equity, they don't have the income growth also necessary to push buyers up the property ladder. If not for historically low interest rates, loan balances would be contracting with the declining wages experienced by many during the recession, particularly those in real estate related fields.
Also, prices have crashed, particularly for low-end properties typically purchased by FHA buyers. Nobody purchasing low-end properties with FHA loans over the last decade has accumulated any move up equity, and prices are still going down. That problem alone explains much of the ongoing weakness in the move-up market. In fact, I argue that the lack of equity at the bottom of the housing ladder is largely responsible for the weakness in pricing and volume at higher price points.
The future of move-up markets
Many housing pundits believe the market will strengthen from the top down. This view is not correct. The high end of the market will bottom last because it will experience a persistent lack of available buyers. If there are fewer move-up buyers, there will be less buying pressure, and since we know there are plenty of distressed properties from the plethora of overextended borrowers struggling or squatting in high-end homes, there will be no shortage of supply.
Lenders have been successful so far at slowly releasing high end homes to the market to keep the decline orderly. Let's assume that practice will continue. Due to the low demand, there will be an ongoing imbalance with supply and demand, and prices will slowly creep downward as banks are forced to take slightly lower prices than recent comps in order to liquidate. Like slowly removing a band-aid, the pain gets stretched out over a much longer period of time -- but it is still painful.
Banks will release product slowly because they need to get their cash back out of these properties. If a big bank like BofA gets really desperate, they might increase the pace of their liquidations and push prices lower quicker, but if they don't, prices will drift lower slowly as the inevitable liquidations run their course.
Lenders have this fantasy that they can slowly release product into a rising market and obtain a better recovery. It isn't going to happen because there is simply too much product. For example, the Irvine Company and other new home builders generally account for about 15% of sales. At that rate, they can obtain higher prices and not disrupt the market. Right now, distressed sales by lenders account for 30% to 40% of the monthly sales volumes, and they have a backlog which will take a decade to clear out. If they try to reduce their sales volumes to be only 15% of sales, they will be selling REO forever.
In my opinion, we will see the low end of the market bottom in the next year or two. There will be a multi-year gap between when the low end bottoms and when the high end bottoms due to the lack of a move up market. It isn't until those who bought near the bottom at the low end have enough equity to move up to the next rung on the property ladder that each subsequent rung will bottom out. In other words, the bottom process will take a long time, and the high end will be the last to experience it.
The 0.2% bump in August in the Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller index of 20 metropolitan areas is the fifth straight monthly increase. But a sustained improvement in housing may be hard to achieve in the months to come.
By Alejandro Lazo, Los Angeles Times -- October 25, 2011, 9:20 p.m.
Yes, the seasonal pattern will spell then end of rising index prices. I have repeatedly predicted a welcome decline this fall and winter.
The Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller index of 20 metropolitan areas rose a meager 0.2% from July to August, an uptick many analysts noted as probably seasonal in nature and influenced by the decline in foreclosed properties as a share of the total number of homes sold.
Prices falling 3.8% is a positive? Well, I think so, but not because I want to see prices go back up. It's positive because it's a sign houses are becoming more affordable to the average person.
Christopher Thornberg, principal of Beacon Economics, said other home price indicators point to two trends developing in the nation's housing market: Values are declining for homes in distress — those properties that are either foreclosures or cases where the homeowners are delinquent on their mortgages — but other homes are fetching higher prices.
Chris Thornberg is correct. The lack of equity is weighing down the market by reducing the number of move-up transactions.
I do get tired of every comment by every person in every news story being slanted to the point of view of loan owners. I find more than a modest glimmer of hope that prices will get even more affordable when I see how far prices have already come down, the downward price momentum, and the lack of demand at current price points.
Prices rose in August for 10 of the index's 20 metro areas compared with July, and prices fell in the other 10 cities.
Prices fell more in Las Angeles than they did in Las Vegas last month. Which market do you think is closer to the bottom?
Yes, lenders are ramping up. Reports about the declines in foreclosures usually omit the reason foreclosures declined. The implication is that lenders must have run out of people to foreclose on, so the foreclosure cleansing must be nearly over. That was never the case. The price pressure from distressed properties will not be relieved until delinquency rates are back down to historic norms and the shadow inventory is cleaned out. That process will take years.
But Lawler disagreed, saying that the recent increase in the number of notices of default, the first formal stage of the foreclosure process, was mostly due to activity by Bank of America. There has yet to be a significant uptick in home repossessions by banks.
What does Mr. Lawler think BofA is doing then? Are they issuing all these NODs just for giggles? Just because the NODs have not been seasoned for 90 days so they can become Notices of trustee sale (NOTs) and ultimately foreclosure does not mean that they won't. BofA and other banks are clearly setting out to liquidate their shadow inventory. Once these properties are REO, they may have second thoughts about how quickly they dispose of these properties, but their recent actions show they are intent on repossessing these properties.
20% down the drain
In any market crash, the weakest hands give up their positions first, and the strongest hands give up last. During 2007 and 2008, many of my property profiles were borrowers who used 100% financing, Option ARMs, or were dependant upon Ponzi borrowing to survive. When conditions became even slightly adverse, they walked away. Over time, we saw fewer and fewer of those borrowers, and we started to see the people who put 5% or 10% down.
Now that the decline has dragged on for 5 years and prices are over 30% down from the peak and still falling, we are starting to see the people who put 20% down give up and walk away. The former owner of today's featured property paid $598,000, and he put $119,400 down. It went back to the bank on 3/11/2011. The former owner's substantial down payment is lost.
Larry Roberts and Shevy Akason are hosting an OC housing market presentation at JT Schmids at the District on November 9, 2011. Please RSVP at firstname.lastname@example.org. Register online here: OC Housing Market - JT Schmid's.
Irvine House Address ... 65 SAPPHIRE Irvine, CA 92602
Larry Roberts is hosting a Las Vegas cashflow properties presentation at JT Schmids at the District on November 9, 2011. Please RSVP at email@example.com. Register online here: Las Vegas cashflow property - JT Schmid's.
|You are subscribed to email updates from Irvine Housing Blog |
To stop receiving these emails, you may unsubscribe now.
|Email delivery powered by Google|
|Google Inc., 20 West Kinzie, Chicago IL USA 60610|